Foresight in policymaking
Foresight is the disciplined analysis of alternative futures. Foresight aims to support policymakers in making better-informed decisions, having considered future eventualities, scenarios and outcomes.
Foresight techniques help policy making to navigate the uncertainty of the future and explore alternatives in a structured way.
The benefits of foresight include:
Intelligence: awareness of other people’s plans and thoughts about the future
Sense-making: new ideas and understandings of potential developments and their policy implications.
Shared visions: of challenges and opportunities facilitating consensus and agreement in political negotiations
Foresight is used in early, knowledge-based phases of a policy cycle before objectives and priorities crystalise to prepare the ground for consensus and informed policy debate, and later on as a process of filtering and assessing objectives and priorities with a view to future-proof policy ideas.
Foresight in EU research and innovation policy
Foresight is used in the preparation of EU research and innovation policy proposals and in particular in the strategy and planning of the primarily of the research and innovation framework programmes.
A specially developed Strategic Foresight Intelligence System for EU research and innovation policy (SAFIRE) involves a library of resources (scenarios and wild-cards) that can be used for gaming alternative futures, a process of monitoring changes and signposting new trends, and a mechanism for future-proofing different policy-options.
The systematic use of foresight according to the SAFIRE model is the state-of-the-art in the use of foresight in EU research and innovation policy.
Foresight in Horizon Europe
Foresight is used in the preparation of strategic plans and work programmes of Horizon Europe.
Horizon Europe supports foresight in EU countries in order to improve their research policy capacity.
Horizon Europe supports foresight and research that has a bearing on foresight, developing foresight capacity in companies, research centres and think tanks helping them to predict, prepare for and analyse possible futures.
One of the aims of Horizon Europe is to support the use of foresight in research and innovation policy in EU countries, with a view to strengthening common views of future challenges and opportunities for research and innovation in the EU.
In the Commission, the Horizon Europe Foresight Network, a sub-group of the Commission's Strategic Foresight Network, coordinates the implementation of the provisions of Horizon Europe for foresight, the use of foresight in the strategic planning of Horizon Europe, and the exploitation of foresight supported by Horizon Europe in EU policies.
List of foresight related topics in the 2021-2022 work programme of Horizon Europe
Foresight in EU missions
The EU introduced missions as a new instrument in Horizon Europe to tackle major global challenges with concrete targets and definite timelines.
To elaborate visions for the future in five mission areas, Mission Boards were appointed. Starting in autumn 2019, five Foresight on Demand projects supported the boards with foresight expertise and methodology.
With the launch of the EU Missions, the reports are now published.
Foresight reports for Missions in Horizon Europe
Five foresight projects provided perspectives on possible futures to the Mission Boards. They identified good practice examples and developed scenarios.
Past activities
Beyond the Horizon: foresight in support of future EU research and innovation policy (BOHEMIA)
BOHEMIA is the main EU strategic foresight study in support of the Commission's proposal for Horizon Europe.
The report made key policy recommendations and identified future senarios.
Publications
After the new normal: Scenarios for Europe in the post Covid-19 world
The publication charts changes that the Covid-19 pandemic may bring to the context of EU R&I policy
Strategic Intelligence Foresight System for European Union Research and Innovation (R&I) SAFIRE
The Strategic Intelligence Foresight System developed in this study aims to support the design and implementation of EU R&I Framework Programmes
The scientific, technological and societal conditions for the end of the COVID-19 crisis
The study used the Dynamic Argumentative Delphi method to explore experts’ views on what Europe may look like in 2023, in domains relating to medicine, public health, and socio-economic conditions.
100 radical innovation breakthroughs for the future
Horizon scanning report as part of the preparation for Horizon Europe's implementation.
Transitions on the Horizon: Perspectives for the European Union's future research and innovation policies
BOHEMIA foresight study outlining potential policies to tackle future challenges.
Strategic foresight in EU R&I policy: Wider use, more impact
Recommendations from the SFRI expert group on how to use foresight more strategically and with more impact in research and innovation policy.
Report of the expert group Strategic Foresight for R&I Policy in Horizon 2020
Compilation of 9 background papers drafted by members of the SFRI between June 2015 and November 2016.
Trust at risk
Is Trust in EU policies and institutions at risk? What can EU research and innovation policy do about it? Experts explore trends and policy options.
European Value Changes
This report studies the impact of changing societal value systems on EU research and innovation policy.
Models of horizon scanning
How to integrate horizon scanning into European research and innovation policies
Strategic foresight: Towards the third strategic programme of Horizon 2020 - Study
Report supporting the preparation of the third strategic programme of Horizon 2020 (2018-2020).
The junction of health, environment and the bioeconomy
The key message from identifying trends at the junction of health, environment and the bioeconomy is that a systemic approach to challenges is needed
The Knowledge Future: Intelligent policy choices for Europe 2050
A group of experts explores scenarios for research, innovation and education policies and outlines some key elements for the future.