RADAR, a system dynamics model: Analysing long-term impacts of R&I policy on competitive sustainability

This study explores the role of the EU Framework Programme (FP) in supporting and accelerating research and development, market uptake and diffusion within mRNA technology and green hydrogen. Additionally, it explores pathways towards competitive sustainability. By recognising that research and innovation (R&I) processes are complex and non-linear, the study uses system dynamics modelling to examine EU R&I policy impacts. By building on Key Impact Pathways from Horizon Europe, we assess medium- and long-term impacts using both traditional and alternative metrics, such as installed capacity and customer bases, to provide a holistic view of R&I progress. The model allows testing of various policy scenarios concerning the role of the EU FP for R&I, offering insights for FP10's design and emphasising data limitations that highlight the need for improved EU-level data collection strategies.

Authors: Igor Czermainski de Oliveira, Bianca Cavicchi