COVID-19 has led to a global public health crisis and changed the course of lives for billions with ensuing social and economic damage. The study used the Dynamic Argumentative Delphi method to explore experts’ views on what Europe may look like in 2023, in domains relating to medicine, public health, and socio-economic conditions.

Based on the experts’ responses, the points of consensus and the areas of diverging opinions, the study developed five scenarios of exit from the crisis in 2023, associated with the relative success of efforts to develop immunity and with lessons learned as a result of those efforts. The report draws some conclusions for EU R&I policy, but together with its data annex, it can support strategic discussions across many different policy fields.